Politics: Polling averages show Trump gaining on Biden in most swing states. Will it be enough?

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Election Day is four days away, and more than half the number of Americans who voted in 2016 have already cast their ballots, as polls continue to show Democratic nominee Joe Biden with a large national lead over President Donald Trump, along with a smaller advantage in several key states.

The deadline for early voting ends Friday in several states where the race is tight, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Texas – and on Saturday in the key states of Florida and North Carolina. Though early turnout appears to favor Democrats in many states, Republicans are gaining ground quickly in Florida and other early voting states.

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As the race enters the home stretch, the USA TODAY average of averages, which is based on data from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, finds Biden up 8.3 percentage points over Trump nationally. That is nearly a full point higher than Biden was at the end of September but 2 points lower than the 10.1-point edge he held in mid-October.

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The polls were also shifting in Trump's favor ahead of his upset win over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but that trend was more pronounced and her lead was not as big as Biden's heading into the election. Four days before Election Day that year, Clinton's average lead was about 2.1 percentage points.

If the states end up breaking according to their current polling averages, and assuming the non-swing states go the way they did in 2016, Biden would win decisively in the Electoral College, even if he lost Ohio, which is tied. But Biden's polling average advantage is greater than 5 points in just four of twelve swing states and the race will hinge on what happens in the races where Biden's margin is thin enough to leave the candidates in a virtual dead heat.

The week in polls: Trump gains in 9 of 12 swing states, but Biden still leads in 10 of them

  The week in polls: Trump gains in 9 of 12 swing states, but Biden still leads in 10 of them With just eight days to go to Election Day, both national polls and swing state surveys make it clear the race between Trump and Biden is tightening.President Donald Trump gained on his Democratic challenger Joe Biden in national polling averages, and in nine of 12 contested states. But Biden still holds a sizable lead in the national polls and is still ahead of Trump in 10 of the 12 states that could decide the election.

a sign on the grass: Trump-Pence and Biden-Harris signs are displayed outside The Coral Gables Branch Library in Miami, Florida, Oct. 27, 2020. © Chandan Khanna, AFP via Getty Images Trump-Pence and Biden-Harris signs are displayed outside The Coral Gables Branch Library in Miami, Florida, Oct. 27, 2020.

Last week in polls: Trump gains in 9 of 12 swing states, but Biden still leads in 10 of them

National average

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.7%, Trump 43.4% (Biden +8.3)

On Monday: Biden 51.4%, Trump 42.9% (Biden +8.6)

Net change: Trump +0.3

  • RCP: Biden 51.3%, Trump 43.5%
  • FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.0%, Trump 43.2%

Four days before 2016 election: Clinton +2.1

Swing state averages

Arizona: Biden +1.4

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.8%, Trump 46.4%

Monday: Biden 48.8%, Trump 46.1% (Biden +2.7)

Net change: Trump +1.3

Florida: Biden +1.7

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.6%, Trump 46.9%

Monday: Biden 48.9%, Trump 47.0% (Biden +1.9)

Net change: Trump +0.2

Georgia: Biden +1.0

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.0%, Trump 47.0%

Monday: Biden 47.6%, Trump 47.1% (Biden +0.5)

Analysis: Where the swing states stand in Trump-Biden battle

  Analysis: Where the swing states stand in Trump-Biden battle Democratic nominee Joe Biden enters the final weekend before Election Day with polls showing him as the favorite to win the White House.Polls were off in several key swing states in 2016, and President Trump blindsided the experts with victories in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.But it would take a larger polling error for history to repeat itself in 2020.Nationally, Biden leads Trump by 8 points in the RealClearPolitics average. At this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton's lead over Trump had shrunk to 1.6 points after FBI Director James Comey announced he had reopened an investigation into her use of a private server.

Net change: Biden +0.5

Iowa: Biden +0.6

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.2%, Trump 46.6%

Monday: Biden 47.4%, Trump 46.3% (Biden +1.1)

Net change: Trump +0.5

Michigan: Biden +7.3

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.4%, Trump 43.1%

Monday: Biden 50.5%, Trump 42.7% (Biden +7.8)

Net change: Trump +0.5

Minnesota: Biden +6.4

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.1%, Trump 42.7%

Monday: Biden 49.4%, Trump 42.3% (Biden +7.1)

Net change: Trump +0.7

Nevada: Biden +5.1

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.1%, Trump 44.0%

Monday: Biden 49.6%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +5.8)

Net change: Trump +0.7

North Carolina: Biden +1.3

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.6%, Trump 47.3%

Monday: Biden 49.1%, Trump 47.2% (Biden +1.9)

Net change: Trump +0.6

Ohio: Tie

USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 46.4%, Biden 46.4%

Monday: Trump 47.4%, Biden 46.4% (Trump +1.0)

Net change: Biden +1.0

Pennsylvania: Biden +4.7

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.0, Trump 45.3%

Monday: Biden 50.0%, Trump 44.6% (Biden +5.4)

Net change: Trump +0.7

Texas: Trump +1.8

USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 48.1%, Biden 46.3%

Monday: Trump 48.1%, Biden 46.8% (Trump +1.7)

Net change: Trump +0.1

Where Biden and Trump stand in the polls 1 day out from Election Day

  Where Biden and Trump stand in the polls 1 day out from Election Day President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are neck-and-neck in the polls in crucial battleground states like Texas and Ohio. Biden has solid leads over Trump in key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories. It's election eve in the US and former Vice President Joe Biden is leading President Donald Trump in the national polls. Biden also has leads over Trump in a number of key battleground states, but the candidates are neck-and-neck in crucial states like Texas and Ohio.The former vice president has an 8.

Wisconsin: Biden +7.9

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.1%, Trump 43.2%

Monday: Biden 50.1%, Trump 44.4% (Biden +5.7)

Net change: Biden +2.2

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Polling averages show Trump gaining on Biden in most swing states. Will it be enough?

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